Why this restart matters for the Gulf
The restart of Mozambique LNG, led by TotalEnergies, is more than a project milestone in Africa. It is a timing event for the LNG cycle. The consortium lifted force majeure in November 2025 and, following that decision, has now restarted onshore and offshore activity at Afungi. Project progress stands at around 40%, with first LNG currently expected in 2029. For global LNG planners, this restart reintroduces a large, contracted supply source into the late-2020s balance.
The UAE lens: portfolio optimisation, not just volumes
From a UAE perspective, Mozambique’s return lands alongside Abu Dhabi’s own LNG expansion cycle. ADNOC has taken FID on Ruwais LNG, with production targeted for 2028, and has indicated that most capacity is already committed across Asia and Europe. In that context, Mozambique LNG does not compete on headline volumes. Instead, it expands portfolio optionality. It adds a geographically distinct supply stream feeding Asian demand, which matters for contract structuring, shipping optimisation, and seasonal balancing across portfolios managed from the Gulf.
Asian buyers and the contract backbone
The project’s buyer mix is firmly Asia-oriented. Public disclosures confirm a long-term sale and purchase agreement between JERA and CPC covering 1.6 mtpa over a 17-year base term. Tokyo Gas and Centrica have also disclosed a joint offtake structure. In addition, project financing disclosures reference other long-term Asian offtakers that are not publicly named, reinforcing the bankability of the contract stack and the project’s Indo-Pacific orientation.
Energy security implications for Asia
For Asian utilities, Mozambique LNG offers diversification by geography and shipping route. It reduces reliance on a narrow set of basins while providing long-dated contracted volumes outside the spot market. This matters because many forecasters still flag a tighter LNG balance in the early 2030s, even after the late-2020s supply wave from Qatar, the United States, and new African projects. Against that backdrop, a credible restart improves confidence in forward planning, even as execution risk remains part of the equation.
What changes for UAE strategy
The UAE’s advantage lies in portfolio discipline. Abu Dhabi is not simply adding supply; it is shaping how supply is optimised. ADNOC already holds positions across Mozambique LNG’s broader value chain while building Ruwais at home. This allows Gulf sellers to manage destination flexibility, shipping economics, and carbon-intensity narratives across portfolios serving Asia. Over time, this reinforces a clear UAE proposition: not only producing LNG, but acting as a reliable optimiser of global gas flows into Asia’s evolving demand centres.
