The International Energy Agency projects the UAE will exceed 4,000 kWh of solar electricity per person by 2031, according to its Renewables 2026 forecast. That figure sits five times above the global average of roughly 800 kWh per person. The gap signals both the scale of the UAE’s deployment and the relative size of its population.
UAE solar electricity per person versus global average by 2031
| UAE | >4,000 kWh | |
| Global average | ~800 kWh |
Source: IEA Renewables 2026
The projection supports the country’s economic diversification drive. It also strengthens the case for sustained private-sector investment across generation, storage and grid infrastructure throughout the Emirates.
How does the Gulf compare globally?
The Gulf is not an isolated story. The IEA expects renewable capacity across the Middle East to triple by 2031. Oman and Qatar are both projected to rank among the global leaders, third and fifth respectively, for solar generation per person by that year.
By FurtherArabia’s reading of the IEA numbers, the table below captures where each market stands.
| Country | Projected solar rank by 2031 | Generation outlook |
|---|---|---|
| UAE | 1st (per person) | Exceeds 4,000 kWh/person |
| Oman | 3rd (per person) | Among global leaders |
| Qatar | 5th (per person) | Among global leaders |
| Global average | — | ~800 kWh/person |
The IEA attributes the improved outlook to stronger policy frameworks, energy security pressures and falling solar costs. These forces are expanding the project pipeline for developers, equipment suppliers and infrastructure investors alike.
The UAE targets a 35% clean-energy share of total generation by 2031. Its Energy Strategy 2050 separately aims to triple renewables’ contribution by 2030. Both goals require new capacity and broader private-sector participation.
What does the IEA forecast mean for investors?
Dubai is already moving. The seventh phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park will add 2,000 MW of photovoltaic capacity. It will also include a 1,400 MW battery storage system with six hours of discharge, equivalent to 8,400 MWh of stored energy.
That combination matters. Solar output peaks during daylight hours. Industrial demand, however, continues well after sunset. Storage bridges the gap and raises the commercial value of each megawatt installed.
The IEA forecast covers the entire regional power system, not a single project announcement. Developers, lenders and equipment suppliers all face a structurally larger addressable market through 2031.
The UAE’s projected lead reflects a shift from isolated renewable projects towards integrated power systems, where generation, storage and transmission are planned together. Investors and policymakers should track project awards, storage procurement rounds and private-sector access conditions through the remainder of this decade.
What it means for the Gulf
The IEA’s projection that the UAE will exceed 4,000 kWh of solar electricity per person by 2031 (five times the global average) reinforces the scale of opportunity Gulf-based developers are already pursuing internationally. Masdar’s 200MW floating solar plant at Chereh Dam in Malaysia and DEWA International’s overseas energy partnership with Shanghai Electric both point to UAE developers exporting the capabilities being built at home.
With Oman and Qatar also projected to rank among the global top five for solar generation per person by 2031, the Gulf’s collective renewable buildout is deepening its appeal as a hub for project finance and equipment supply. The 353-firm Asia delegation at ADIPEC suggests regional and international counterparties are already positioning accordingly.
Quick answers
The IEA’s Renewables 2026 forecast projects the UAE will exceed 4,000 kWh of solar electricity per person by 2031, roughly five times the projected global average of around 800 kWh per person.
Oman is projected to rank third globally and Qatar fifth for solar electricity generation per person by 2031, according to the IEA’s Renewables 2026 forecast.
The seventh phase will add 2,000 MW of photovoltaic capacity and a 1,400 MW battery storage system with six hours of discharge, equal to 8,400 MWh of stored energy, in Dubai.
