Stable outlook, strong fiscal buffers
S&P also maintained Ras Al Khaimah’s transfer and convertibility assessment at AA+. That dual affirmation signals that the agency sees no near-term pressure on either the sovereign or its external financing framework.
The stable outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that Ras Al Khaimah will sustain prudent fiscal and economic policies. The agency also expects the emirate to preserve a substantial net asset position. That holds even against a backdrop of elevated regional risk.
For institutional investors pricing Gulf sovereign exposure, the affirmation matters. It reduces the probability of a near-term downgrade cycle and helps contain spread volatility during periods of regional uncertainty.
What does the revised growth profile mean for investors?
S&P trimmed its 2026 real GDP growth forecast to approximately 1.8%, down from an earlier estimate of 2%. However, the agency projected stronger 2025 growth of 5.7%, per its published assessment.
Looking further ahead, S&P expects average real GDP growth of around 2.4% across 2026 and 2027. Growth then accelerates to an average of approximately 3.8% in 2028 and 2029, according to the agency’s projections.
The near-term moderation reflects timing rather than any structural deterioration. The emirate’s medium-term trajectory still rests on two durable drivers: tourism expansion and infrastructure investment.
Wynn Al Marjan Island remains a flagship project in that investment pipeline. Its development anchors both hospitality capacity and related capital spending over the next several years.
Credit discipline still commands a premium
S&P’s affirmation signals that Ras Al Khaimah can absorb a softer growth patch without losing fiscal credibility. That is the key takeaway for debt investors in this cycle.
The rating outcome confirms a broader pattern across the UAE. Consistent policy discipline continues to translate into measurable credit advantage. It narrows borrowing costs and widens the investor base for sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuance.
For policymakers, the stable outlook validates the approach. Fiscal prudence still commands a credit premium in the UAE — and that premium has tangible value when global rate conditions remain uncertain.
Meanwhile, the medium-term growth acceleration projected for 2028 and 2029 gives strategic investors a clear horizon to watch. Infrastructure commitments made now should begin generating returns as tourism capacity scales up.
Investors and analysts should monitor whether the Wynn Al Marjan Island opening timeline holds, and how tourism revenue tracks against S&P’s growth assumptions through 2026.
Quick answers
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Ras Al Khaimah at A/A-1 with a stable outlook. The agency also maintained the emirate’s transfer and convertibility assessment at AA+.
S&P projected real GDP growth of approximately 5.7% in 2025, moderating to an average of around 2.4% in 2026–27, before accelerating to approximately 3.8% on average in 2028–29.
The stable outlook reduces the risk of a near-term downgrade, helping contain spread volatility and supporting access to debt capital markets at competitive borrowing costs.
