Backlog clears as flows normalise
The jump in Gulf oil exports marks a rapid shift from the severe war-time disruption seen earlier in the year. Combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million barrels per day from May to reach about 10.07 million barrels per day in June, according to Kpler. Cargo tracker Vortexa put June flows slightly higher at around 10.2 million barrels per day, up from 7 million barrels per day in May. However, volumes still remain well below the roughly 16.5 million barrels per day recorded a year earlier.
The recovery followed the 17 June agreement between Washington and Tehran to halt the conflict and restore safe passage through Hormuz. Since then, the backlog of crude stranded in the Gulf has eased quickly. Kpler data show floating storage in and around the Strait of Hormuz peaked at about 96 million barrels of crude in late April. That backlog has now fallen to roughly 23 million barrels still awaiting transit through the waterway.
Shipping activity has picked up as security risks moderated. Ship broker BRS reported that 98 tankers crossed the strait between 22 and 28 June, about 14 per day and the highest level since the conflict began. The tally included 47 laden outbound tankers and 41 ballast vessels entering the Gulf, signalling that shipowners are increasingly willing to send vessels back into the region’s main export corridor. As a result, increased loadings have helped push international oil prices back towards pre-conflict levels.
UAE leads the surge, Saudi and neighbours follow
The United Arab Emirates has been central to the rebound. UAE exports reached a record 3.7–3.8 million barrels per day in June, according to Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG data. That is more than 1 million barrels per day above May levels and highlights the country’s role in releasing stranded Gulf crude into global markets. UAE volumes include crude moved both through pipelines that bypass Hormuz and through the strait itself, supported by a tanker shuttle service operated by ADNOC.
Saudi Arabia has also ramped up exports. Kpler estimates Saudi crude exports rose by about 768,000 barrels per day to 4.52 million barrels per day in June. In the last week of the month, exports averaged around 6.3 million barrels per day, close to January levels, as Riyadh increased loadings from Ras Tanura. During the conflict, Saudi Arabia and the UAE diverted some flows through alternative pipelines, options that were more limited for Iraq and Kuwait.
Meanwhile, exports from Iraq and Kuwait recovered to about 800,000 barrels per day each in June, according to Vortexa. Kuwait also raised output sharply to around 1.65 million barrels per day, a source told Reuters, positioning itself to benefit from improved shipping conditions. Iran, for its part, increased exports by more than 70% in June to roughly 640,000 barrels per day as the US eased its blockade in line with the June agreement.
For investors, the rebound in Gulf oil exports underscores the resilience of Gulf producers and the speed with which supply can return once key chokepoints reopen. However, it also reinforces the persistent geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets, given the region’s reliance on Hormuz and the role of external security guarantees. As flows continue to normalise, investors will watch closely whether current peace arrangements hold, how quickly the remaining floating storage clears, and whether Gulf producers choose to sustain or moderate export growth through the second half of the year.
